The hand represents the most sophisticated and differentiated musculoskeletal tool in the human being, demanding the largest capacity of the nervous system in relation to its size. Full function and adequate strength of the hand are preconditions for dealing with the demands of daily life. Hand strength has been identified as an important factor predicting not only disability in musculoskeletal diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis [1], but also bone mineral density [2, 3], and the likelihood of falls and fractures in osteoporosis [4, 5]. It even predicts complications and general morbidity after surgical interventions [6], general disability and future outcome in older age [7–9], economic consequences of diseases [10] as well as cause-specific and overall mortality in elderly people [5, 11–13]. Arteriosclerosis is the most frequent cause of morbidity and mortality and grip strength is one of the strongest predictors of its consequences, e.g. myocardial infarction or stroke and post-event recovery [12, 14, 15]. In contrast, grip strength is almost completely independent from depression and return to work [16, 17].

In addition to its predictive value grip strength and key pinch strength are considered to be "objective" outcome parameters and are used to quantify outcome after orthopaedic interventions [18]. Many investigators normalize measured values such as percentage of the contralateral, non-affected side. However, when the contralateral side is also compromised by the underlying disease or its treatment, other benchmarks are required. Although numerous publications provide normative data for grip strength and key pinch strength, it would be helpful to predict the expected hand strength values for an individual based on easily measured factors [19].

Few studies examined predictors of hand strength itself. Strong predictors are sex, age, body height and mid-forearm circumference [20, 21]. Weaker predictors are body weight and hand size measures [21]. Grip strength has often been taken as surrogate for overall strength but this should be done with caution since correlation of the two strength measures is high in many but also low in few settings [22]. Grip strength has a substantial north-south gradient from 24.2 kg in Denmark to 14.2 kg in Calabria in men [23, 24]. Age-and gender-specific grip and key pinch strengths have recently been evaluated in a large population-based field study in Switzerland [25]. We used the data from that study to determine the predictive impact of various cofactors.

This study aimed to quantify the predictive power of easily assessable demographic and/or anatomical factors such as sex, age, occupational demands on the hand, body height, and body weight on grip and pinch strength. The second aim was to predict grip and pinch strength by a regression model of these factors.

We quantified the predictive impact and predicted normative dominant grip and pinch strength by sex, age, body height and weight, and occupational demands on the hand based on a representative population survey [25]. The overall predictive power of these cofactors combined was very high - higher for grip than pinch strength (76.6% versus 67.7% multivariate explained variance). This was consistently true for the predictive power of the covariates in the bivariate and multivariate relationships.

The square roots of the explained variances mean that the data of the multivariate regression correlate to the empirically measured ones with values of 0.88 for grip strength and 0.82 for pinch strength [29]. For both strength parameters, polynominal equations were the best predictive functions with a maximal degree of 3 (for occupation). In the bivariate functions, height was the best and weight the worst predictor. In the multivariate approximation, sex was the most important predictor, and weight had virtually no predictive impact. The quadratic term of age approximated to the empiric curves much closer than the linear regression and reduced the high variance observed in older age, which was discussed as a possible weakness of the population survey [25].

The multivariate model provided a valid prediction of grip strength (error 2.9%) but predicted pinch strength was less close to the measured one (error 13.3%) as shown by the examples. However, the empirical data in the tables were only mean values stratified by sex and 5-year age group and left out the cofactors body height, weight, and occupational demands on the hand [25]. Unequal distribution of important confounders such as occupational demands on the dominant hand may cause bias of the explicit data in the tables. For this reason and given the fact that predictive power of the multivariate models was high, it is possible that multivariate equations provide a better estimate of grip and pinch strength for a specific person than the empirically measured data. In addition, age taken as quasi-continuous variable into the regression will provide more precise normative data than obtained by means of strength out of age-grouped tables.

The difference in the grip and pinch strengths measured in a person suffering from a somatic (but not mental) disorder compared to the normative value may be used to predict various prognostic outcomes and risks as indicated in the wider literature. Examples are morbidity and mortality of rheumatological affections, vascular diseases, and general predictions as listed in the introduction [1–15]. Furthermore, hand/grip strength measurement is an easily performed "quick bedside test" [6]. Comparing clinical data to normative values allows the assessor to qualify (on average) whether the patient is at an elevated risk or not but few studies provided clinically feasible quantification of that risk. For example, the increment of 5 kg grip strength was associated with an average decrease of 10-15% in overall mortality after adjustment for confounders [11]. On the other hand, it is not possible to give a life expectancy in remaining years for a measured grip strength of 20 kg or 30 kg when 40 kg is expected by the norm. This raises important issues for future research.

One of the strengths of the study is the large representative sample providing valid normative data for the German speaking part of Switzerland and which can be expected to be valid for other European countries and the USA. Predictive power has been proven in various countries and cultures [1–15, 20, 21]. The regression formula can easily be programmed and allows quick determination of the norm for a specific person. For example, grip strength in Excel: fill in sex (0 = f, 1 = m) into field A1, age in years into A2, height in cm into A3, weigth in kg into A4, occupation (0 = beyond sedentary, 1 = sedentary, 2 = light, 3 = medium, 4 = heavy, 5 = very heavy) into A5, and program the formula of grip strength into A6: -28.148+12.5*A1+0.372*A2-0.005*A2*A2+0.304*A3-0.083*A4+0.001*A4*A4+12.293*A5-5.865*A5*A5+0.897*A5*A5*A5. Get the result of grip strength in kg by "enter".

The limitations of the study are that the data may not be transferable to countries or populations with different socioeconomic conditions, especially to populations with high proportions of craftsmen. However, our grip strength data (see table 1) were comparable to those pooled by a meta-analysis of 12 studies of which 8 were conducted in the USA [19]. The prevalence of high demands on the hand due to occupational activity was low in our study, especially, there were no subjects reporting very high demands. Realistically, the prediction and regression data are only representative and valid for population-based normative values and not for disabled patients. The selection procedure of the volunteers was not really random. Furthermore, it was not possible to quantify health risks on the basis of the present data as discussed above. Finally, we did not further examine potentially predictive cofactors such as sporting or leisure activity level or comorbidities, e.g. smoking. However, there remained little space to explain additional variance since the regression models provided a good fit.

The five easy-to-measure cofactors sex, age, body height, categorized occupational demand on the hand, and body weight provide a highly accurate prediction of normative grip and pinch strength.