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Table 3 Accuracy statistics, area under receiver operator curves and Nagelkerke R2 for full recovery and chronic moderate/severe pain and disability pathways at 6- and 12-months. Values are shown for each pathway with and without the addition of expectations of recovery

From: Do expectations of recovery improve risk assessment for people with whiplash-associated disorders? Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study

 

6-months

12-months

Full recovery

Chronic mod/severe disability

Full recovery

Chronic mod/severe disability

NDI

Without expectations of recovery n = 91

With expectations of recovery n = 91

Without expectations of recovery n = 90

With expectations of recovery n = 90

Without expectations of recovery n = 74

With expectations of recovery n = 75

Without expectations of recovery n = 75

With expectations of recovery n = 75

 True positive

17

19

36

38

12

17

24

24

 False positive

13

12

9

9

9

13

14

12

 False negative

8

6

10

8

9

4

6

6

 True negative

53

54

35

35

44

41

31

33

 Sensitivity (%)

68

76

78.2

82.6

57

81

80

80

 Specificity (%)

80.3

81.8

79.5

79.5

83

76

69

73.3

 PPV (%)

56.6

61.3

80

80.8

57.1

57

63.1

67

 NPV (%)

86.8

90

77.7

81.4

83

91

83.7

84.6

 + LR

3.45

4.18

3.82

4.04

3.36

3.36

2.57

3

 - LR

0.39

0.29

0.27

0.21

0.52

0.25

0.29

0.28

 X2

19.14

26.99

30.06

34.82

11.94

20.4

17.21

20.51

 AU ROC

.782

.837

.833

.887

.745

.865

.800

.841

 R2

.299

.397

.438

.564

.229

.468

.364

.438

GPR

Without expectations of recovery n = 141

With expectations of recovery n = 140

Without expectations of recovery n = 141

With expectations of recovery n = 140

Without expectations of recovery n = 110

With expectations of recovery n = 110

Without expectations of recovery n = 110

With expectations of recovery n = 113

 True positive

34

37

9

9

35

34

4

4

 False positive

17

19

32

32

26

23

42

21

 False negative

22

18

2

2

17

18

0

0

 True negative

68

66

98

97

32

35

64

85

 Sensitivity (%)

60.7

67.2

81.8

81.8

67.3

65.4

100

100

 Specificity (%)

80

77.6

75.4

75.2

55.2

60.3

60

80.2

 PPV (%)

66.6

66

21.9

21.9

57.4

59.6

8

16

 NPV (%)

75.5

78.6

98

98

65.3

66

100

100

 + LR

3.03

3

3.32

3.3

1.5

1.65

2.5

5.05

 - LR

0.49

0.42

0.24

0.24

0.59

0.57

0

0

 X2

24.23

28

16

15.9

5.6

7.27

5.8

14.11

 AU ROC

.713

.711

.803

.806

.628

.662

.844

.908

 R2

.216

.212

.224

.223

.067

.107

.259

.336

  1. Abbreviations: NDI Neck disability index, GPR Global perceived effect, PPV Positive predictive value, NPV Negative predictive value, +LR Positive likelihood ratio, −LR Negative likelihood ratio, X2 Chi squared statistics, AU ROC Area under receiver operator characteristic curve
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BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders

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