Table 1 An example of probability score output from the SMART Choice tool development which correlates with a predicted outcome and actual outcome. The actual outcome within each decile will be reported to participants who use the tool. Final probability scores will be determined once the SMART Choice tool predictive model is finalised
Decile | Probability for Improvement (mean; range) | Predicted Outcome (n) | Actual Outcome (n; %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improvement | Deterioration/No Change | |||
1 | 0.315 (0.119–0.402) | Deterioration/No Change (69) | 24 (34.8) | 45 (65.2) |
2 | 0.456 (0.406–0.499) | Deterioration/No Change (69) | 29 (42.0) | 40 (58.0) |
3 | 0.535 (0.501–0.564) | Deterioration/No Change (69) | 29 (42.0) | 40 (58.0) |
4 | 0.586 (0.565–0.610) | Deterioration/No Change (69) | 37 (53.6) | 32 (46.4) |
5 | 0.632 (0.610–0.651) | Deterioration/No Change (5) | 1 (20.0) | 4 (80.0) |
Improvement (63) | 44 (69.8) | 19 (30.2) | ||
6 | 0.669 (0.652–0.688) | Improvement (68) | 43 (63.2) | 25 (36.8) |
7 | 0.704 (0.688–0.725) | Improvement (68) | 50 (73.5) | 18 (26.5) |
8 | 0.742 (0.726–0.764) | Improvement (68) | 54 (79.4) | 14 (20.6) |
9 | 0.788 (0.764–0.812) | Improvement (68) | 57 (83.8) | 11 (16.2) |
10 | 0.845 (0.812–0.928) | Improvement (68) | 60 (88.2) | 8 (11.8) |