Table 1 Summary of Included Studies

Dunn & Croft 2006 [22]

Primary care; Prospective cohort

430 patients with LBP (mean age 44.7 years; 47% male)

Four weeks and 12 months

Disability (RMDQ) – score of between 0–24 with a higher score indicating higher disability

Baseline: 9.02 (6.63)

4 weeks: 7.48 (6.48)

12 months: 6.61 (6.74)

228 (24) at 12 months

Kuijpers et al. 2006 [20]

Primary care; prospective cohort

512 patients with a new episode of shoulder pain (mean age 51.49 years; 49.7% male)

Six weeks and six months

Recovery: Two categories (1: 0 = Not recovered and 1 = Recovered; 2: Global perceived recovery based on a 7-point Likert scale (6 = very much improved to 0 = very much deteriorated))

Disability (SDQ – score of between 0–100 – higher score indicating higher disability)

Baseline: 59.89 (24.21)

6 weeks: 40.32 (30.28)

6 months: 27.30 (31.26)

354 (60) at six months

Swinkels-Meewisse et al. 2006 [23]

Primary care; Prospective inception cohort

300 patients with acute LBP (less than four weeks duration) (mean age 43.01 years; 58.2% male)

Six weeks and six months

Disability (RMDQ, see Dunn)

Baseline: 13.15 (5.02)

6 weeks: 6.15 (5.45)

6 months: 4.42 (5.17)

303 (55) at six months

van der Windt et al. 1996 [19]

Primary care; Prospective cohort

300 patients with a new episode of shoulder pain (mean age 49.52 years; 44.4% male)

Four weeks and 12 months

Recovery: Two categories (1: 0 = Persisting symptoms and 1 = Full recovery/much improved; 2: Global perceived recovery based on a 5-point Likert scale (5 = Much improved to 0 = Much deteriorated))

Disability (SDQ, see Kuijpers)

Baseline: 66.6 (23.4)

4 weeks: 47.1 (31.3)

12 months: 29.0 (30.3)

214 (64) at 12 months