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Table 2 Factors associated with non-success (MSBQ ≥ 5) at 1 and 2 years. ORs with p <; 0.10 are in italics in the univariate analyses

From: Prognostic factors for non-success in patients with sciatica and disc herniation

  1 year n = 408 2 years n = 378
  Univariate Multivariate Univariate Multivariate
  OR 95% CI OR 95% CI p OR 95% CI OR 95% CI p
Sociodemographic variables           
Age 1.01 (0.99  1.03) 1.00 (0.99  1.02) 0.689 1.02 (1.00 − 1.04) 1.02 (0.99  1.04) 0.161
Male sex (ref female) 1.03 (0.70  1.53) 1.70 (1.06  2.73) 0.029 0.85 (0.56  1.30) 1.29 (0.78  2.15) 0.326
Smoking (ref non-smoking) 1.99 (1.34 − 2.98) 2.06 (1.31  3.25) 0.002 1.51 (0.99 − 2.30)    
Education, years (continuous) 0.93 (0.87 − 0.99)     0.92 (0.85 − 0.98)    
Partly sick leave (ref working) 0.84 (0.38  1.86)     1.50 (0.66  3.42)    
Complete sick leave, rehabilitation (ref working) 1.90 (1.11 − 3.24)     2.18 (1.21 − 3.95)    
Disability pension (ref working) 2.94 (1.23 − 7.01)     3.82 (1.48 − 9.82)    
Other (ref working) 1.99 (0.96 − 4.14)     2.08 (0.94 − 4.60)    
Back pain/sciatica history           
Previous sciatica episodes >; 0 (ref 0) 1.23 (0.83  1.82)     1.16 (0.76  1.76)    
Duration back problems ≥ 1 years (ref <; 1 year) 2.08 (1.33 − 3.26)     2.48 (1.52 − 4.06) 1.92 (1.11  3.32) 0.020
Duration current sciatica episode ≥ 3 mos. (ref <; 3 mos.) 1.21 (0.81  1.80)     1.69 (1.11 − 2.60) 2.30 (1.40  3.80) 0.001
Self-reported health status           
Maine-Seattle Back Questionnaire (continuous) 1.26 (1.16 − 1.38) 1.24 (1.11  1.38) <;0.001 1.30 (1.19 − 1.44) 1.28 (1.14  1.43) <;0.001
Pain intensity* back (continuous) 1.02 (1.01 − 1.03) 1.01 (1.01  1.02) 0.002 1.02 (1.01 − 1.02)    
Pain intensity* leg (continuous) 1.01 (1.01 − 1.02)     1.01 (1.01 − 1.02)    
Sciatica Bothersomeness Index (continuous) 1.11 (1.06 − 1.16)     1.11 (1.06 − 1.16)    
Subjective health complaints (continuous) 1.13 (1.07 − 1.82) 1.09 (1.03  1.15) 0.003 1.16 (1.10 − 1.23) 1.10 (1.03  1.17) 0.003
Kinesiophobia† (continuous) 1.06 (1.03 − 1.09)     1.07 (1.04 − 1.10) 1.04 (1.00  1.08) 0.033
Emotional distress‡ (continuous) 3.40 (2.08 − 5.56)     3.31 (1.95 − 5.59)    
Clinical finding           
Muscular weakness (ref no weakness) 1.37 (0.92  2.03)     1.27 (0.84  1.93)    
Reflex reduced or absent (ref normal reflexes) 1.41 (0.95 − 2.09) 1.62 (1.03  2.56) 0.037 1.07 (0.70  1.62)    
Sensory loss (ref intact sensibility) 1.10 (0.74  1.64)     1.24 (0.82  1.90)    
Straight-leg-raising test <; 60° (ref >; 60°) 1.31 (0.88  1.95)     1.15 (0.76  1.75)    
No surgery (ref surgery) 1.66 (1.07 − 2.58) 2.97 (1.75  5.04) <;0.001 0.98 (0.63  1.52) 1.32 (0.78  2.23) 0.308
  1. Multivariate analyses are adjusted for age, sex, and baseline MSBQ. The variable no surgery/surgery was added to the final model. In the multivariable analyses, significant variables, adjusted variables and the variable no surgery/surgery are presented
  2. *Visual analogue scale; †Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia; ‡ Hopkins Symptom Check List-25