Table 1 Summary of included studies (n = 12)

Adams et al [29]

n = 403

Mean age (yr) = 27

Population = Health care workers

Gender = 92% F

Region: United Kingdom

History of LBP: n = 141

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Self-administered postal questionnaire, n = 399 (1% percent lost in follow up period)

n = 159 (39.5%) first time LBP

Biering-Sorensen et al [30]

n = 928

Mean age (yr) = not stated, range 30-60

Population = community members

Gender = 52% F

Region: Denmark

History of LBP: not stated

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Self-administered postal questionnaire or telephone, n = 920 (1% percent lost in follow up period)

n = 170 (M), 185 (F) [recurrence or persistence of LBP]; n = 28 (M), 30 (F) [first time LBP 6.3%]

Feldman et al [31]

n = 810

Mean age (yr) = 14.1

Population = Adolescent students

Gender = 47% F

Region: Canada

History of LBP: n = 125

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Self-administered questionnaire, n = 502 (38% lost in follow up period)

n = 65 developed first time LBP (17.2%))

Fortin et al [40]

n = 99

Mean age (yr) = 47.3

Population = Monozygotic twins

Gender = 0% F

Region: Finland

History of LBP: 68

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Numeric pain scale, n = 98 (1% lost in follow up period)

n = 68 (recurrence or persistence of LBP, 69.4%)

Gibbons et al [32]

n = 130

Mean age (years) = 48

Population = Twins

Gender = 0% F

Region: Finland

History of LBP: n = 85 (in past year)

Pain free at baseline: yes

Telephone, n = 128 (2% lost in follow up period)

n = 13 developed first time LBP (out of 43 that reported no history of LBP at baseline, 30.2%)); n = not reported for those 85 participants that declared a history of LBP in 12/12 before baseline testing

Kanchanomai et al [33]

n = 684

Mean age (years) = 19.4

Population = University students

Gender = 74% F

Region: Thailand

History of LBP: n = 0 (in past 3 months)

Pain free at baseline: yes

Self-administered questionnaire, n = 524 (23% lost in follow up period)

n = 160 (23.4%) developed first time LBP

Kountouris et al [34]

n = 23

Mean age (years) = 24

Population = Elite fast bowlers

Gender = 0% F

Region: Australia

History of LBP: n = not stated

Pain free at baseline: yes

Sports Medicine Physician and MRI, n = 23 (0% lost in follow up period)

n = 18 developed first time LBP (72.3%)

Kujala et al [35]

n = 138

Mean age (years) = not stated, range 10.3-13.3

Population = athletes and non-athletes

Gender = not stated, 56% F at follow up

Region: Finland

History of LBP: n = 28 (in past year)

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Self-administered postal questionnaire, n = 119 (14% lost in follow up period)

n = 24 (11 recurrence of LBP [39.3%], 13 first time LBP [11.8%)

Luoto et al [36]

n = 167

Mean age (years) = not stated

Population = blue and white collar workers

Gender = 56% F

Region: Finland

History of LBP: n = 0 (in past year)

Pain free at baseline: yes

Nordic questionnaire, n = 126 (25% lost in follow up period)

n = 33 developed first time LBP (19.8%)

Milgrom et al [37]

n = 395

Mean age (years) = 18

Population = infantry recruits

Gender = 0% F

Region: Israel

History of LBP: n = 0

Pain free at baseline: not stated

Physical examination, n = not clear how many were lost in follow up period

n = 40 developed first time LBP (10.1%)

Nissinen et al [39]

n = 859

Mean age (years) = 12.8

Population = School children

Gender = 48% F

Region: Finland

History of LBP: n = 0 (in past year)

Pain free at baseline

Self-administered standardised pain questionnaire, n = 859 (0% lost in follow up period)

n = 151 developed first time LBP (17.6%)

Van Nieuwenhuyse et al [38]

n = 823

Mean age (years) = 26

Population = workers at health care and distribution facilities

Gender = 60% F

Region: Belgium

History of LBP: n = 337 (in past year)

Pain free at baseline: n = 688 (4 of the participants with history of LBP reported LBP at baseline)

Self-administered questionnaire, n = 692 (16% lost in follow up period)

n = 34 developed first time LBP (out of 355 that reported no history of LBP at baseline, 9.6%), n = 52 (out of 337 that reported LBP in 12/12 before testing, 15.4%)