Table 3 YLDs averted between 2021 and 2040 for three types of interventions
From: Reducing the burden of low back pain: results from a new microsimulation model
Intervention | Total YLDs averted, 95% CI | YLDs averted as % of all LBP-related YLDs, 95% CI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | LCL | UCL | Estimate | LCL | UCL | |
Mean BMI reduction per year | ||||||
  0.1 | 124,220.3 | -124,051.7 | 372,492.3 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 4.1 |
  0.3 | 431,760.0 | 201,178.3 | 662,341.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 7.3 |
  0.5 | 574,757.8 | 348,960.5 | 800,555.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 8.8 |
  1.0 | 768,793.7 | 545,627.2 | 991,960.2 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 11.0 |
  2.0 | 962,829.6 | 737,721.3 | 1,187,937.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 13.1 |
  3.0 | 1,076,333.3 | 848,004.7 | 1,304,661.9 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 14.4 |
  4.0 | 1,156,865.5 | 925,358.0 | 1,388,373.0 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 15.3 |
  5.0 | 1,219,331.1 | 984,868.0 | 1,453,794.2 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 16.0 |
Reduction in occupational risk for all groups combined | ||||||
  20% | 472,775.4 | 173,700.9 | 771,850.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 8.5 |
  40% | 861,090.3 | 575,514.9 | 1,146,665.7 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 12.7 |
  60% | 1,249,405.2 | 963,829.8 | 1,534,980.6 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 16.9 |
  80% | 1,637,720.1 | 1,338,645.6 | 1,936,794.7 | 18.1 | 14.8 | 21.4 |
  100% | 2,026,035.0 | 1,701,643.1 | 2,350,426.9 | 22.4 | 18.8 | 25.9 |
Elimination of occupational risk by occupational group | ||||||
  Group 1 | 472,776.2 | 173,845.7 | 771,706.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 8.5 |
  Group 2 | 210,055.0 | -105,132.3 | 525,242.2 | 2.3 | -1.2 | 5.8 |
  Group 4&5 | 736,558.2 | 447,954.8 | 1,025,161.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 11.3 |
  Group 6 | 510,344.5 | 213,251.7 | 807,437.3 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 8.9 |
  Group 7 | 821,772.5 | 535,221.4 | 1,108,323.6 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 12.2 |
Exercise participation (effect measured by RR) | ||||||
  20% | 597,534.2 | 254,446.2 | 940,622.1 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 10.4 |
  40% | 1,118,694.9 | 791,092.6 | 1,446,297.1 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 16.0 |
  60% | 1,639,855.6 | 1,312,253.3 | 1,967,457.8 | 18.1 | 14.5 | 21.7 |
  80% | 2,161,016.3 | 1,817,928.3 | 2,504,104.3 | 23.9 | 20.1 | 27.6 |
  100% | 2,682,177.0 | 2,310,045.8 | 3,054,308.1 | 29.6 | 25.5 | 33.7 |
Exercise participation (effect measured by VAS) | ||||||
  20% | 590,639.2 | 423,560.4 | 757,718.1 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
  40% | 1,143,701.5 | 984,164.0 | 1,303,239.1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 14.4 |
  60% | 1,696,763.8 | 1,537,226.3 | 1,856,301.4 | 18.7 | 17.0 | 20.5 |
  80% | 2,249,826.1 | 2,082,747.2 | 2,416,905.0 | 24.8 | 23.0 | 26.7 |
  100% | 2,802,888.4 | 2,621,665.9 | 2,984,110.9 | 30.9 | 28.9 | 32.9 |