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Table 4 Absolute risk of subsequent fracture during follow-up period, based on sex, age, and site of initial fracture

From: Establishing baseline absolute risk of subsequent fracture among adults presenting to hospital with a minimal-trauma-fracture

Site of initial fracture

Cumulative risk of subsequent fracture (95% confidence interval)

1-year

3-years

5-years

Women

 50–59 years

  Any

0.082 (0.068–0.097)

0.095 (0.080–0.111)

0.105 (0.089–0.123)

  Proximal

0.056 (0.037–0.080)

0.079 (0.055–0.108)

0.100 (0.072–0.133)

  Distal

0.094 (0.076–0.114)

0.103 (0.084–0.123)

0.108 (0.089–0.130)

 60–69 years

  Any

0.079 (0.068–0.091)

0.107 (0.094–0.121)

0.127 (0.112–0.143)

  Proximal

0.068 (0.053–0.085)

0.105 (0.085–0.126)

0.139 (0.115–0.164)

  Distal

0.088 (0.072–0.105)

0.109 (0.091–0.128)

0.120 (0.101–0.140)

 70–79 years

  Any

0.068 (0.060–0.078)

0.109 (0.098–0.121)

0.143 (0.130–0.157)

  Proximal

0.058 (0.048–0.069)

0.105 (0.092–0.120)

0.144 (0.128–0.162)

  Distal

0.087 (0.071–0.105)

0.116 (0.097–0.137)

0.140 (0.119–0.163)

 80+ years

  Any

0.067 (0.060–0.074)

0.116(0.107–0.125)

0.145 (0.135–0.155)

  Proximal

0.063 (0.056–0.071)

0.115 (0.105–0.125)

0.141 (0.130–0.153)

  Distal

0.082 (0.066–0.101)

0.121 (0.100–0.143)

0.159 (0.135–0.185)

Men

 50–59 years

  Any

0.099 (0.076–0.126)

0.116 (0.090–0.145)

0.127 (0.099–0.158)

  Proximal

0.073(0.046–0.108)

0.092 (0.061–0.131)

0.115 (0.078–0.160)

  Distal

0.126 (0.090–0.168)

0.140 (0.101–0.185)

0.140 (0.101–0.185)

 60–69 years

  Any

0.068 (0.052–0.086)

0.091 (0.072–0.113)

0.101 (0.081–0.125)

  Proximal

0.051 (0.034–0.072)

0.078 (0.057–0.104)

0.092 (0.067–0.121)

  Distal

0.099 (0.068–0.137)

0.115 (0.082–0.156)

0.120 (0.085–0.161)

 70–79 years

  Any

0.053 (0.040–0.067)

0.088 (0.071–0.107)

0.108 (0.089–0.130)

  Proximal

0.052 (0.038–0.068)

0.086 (0.067–0.107)

0.108 (0.087–0.132)

  Distal

0.057 (0.030–0.096)

0.096(0.058–0.145)

0.111 (0.069–0.164)

 80+ years

  Any

0.051 (0.041–0.062)

0.088 (0.075–0.103)

0.110 (0.095–0.127)

  Proximal

0.049 (0.039–0.060)

0.084 (0.070–0.099)

0.104 (0.088–0.122)

  Distal

0.067 (0.037–0.108)

0.125 (0.081–0.179)

0.156 (0.105–0.216)

  1. Note: Fractures were classified as hip, vertebral, and major as proximal. Major fractures included pelvis, distal femur, proximal tibia, ribs and sternum, and proximal humerus. Distal fractures included all remaining fractures, excluding those of the face, head or digits