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Table 3 Predictive values, sensitivity, specificity and AUC for prediction of work participation in each of the multivariable models

From: Prediction of 2-year work participation in sickness absentees with neck or shoulder pain: the contribution of demographic, patient-reported, clinical and imaging information

Information includedNClassified as ≥50% chance and achieved s-WPS (NPV)Classified as < 50% chance and achieved u-WPS
(PPV)
s-WPS correctly classified (specificity)u-WPS correctly classified (sensitivity)AUC
Model 1:
Demographica
1680.60
(0.52; 0.67)
NA1.0
(0.96; 1.0)
0.0
(0.0; 0.05)
0.56
(0.48; 0.63)
Model 1:
Demographic
1390.59
(0.50; 0.67)
NA1.0
(0.96; 1.0)
0.0
(0.0; 0.06)
0.56
(0.47; 0.64)
Model 2:
Demographic + patient-reportedb
1390.72
(0.62; 0.81)
0.67
(0.52; 0.80)
0.82
(0.72; 0.89)
0.54
(0.41; 0.68)
0.77
(0.69; 0.84)
Model 3:
Demographic + patient-reported + clinicalc
1390.74
(0.63; 0.82)
0.69
(0.54; 0.81)
0.82
(0.71; 0.89)
0.58
(0.44; 0.71)
0.78
(0.70; 0.89)
Model 3:
Demographic + patient-reported + clinicalc
820.71
(0.59; 0.83)
0.72
(0.50; 0.89)
0.87
(0.75; 0.95)
0.48
(0.31; 0.66)
0.72
(0.65; 0.86)
Model 4:
Demographic + patient-reported + clinical + MRId
820.74
(0.60; 0.84)
0.72
(0.50; 0.88)
0.86
(0.73; 0.94)
0.55
(0.36; 0.72)
0.80
(0.70; 0.90)
  1. a: male sex OR = 1.69 (95% CI: 0.85; 3.34), b: male sex OR = 1.32 (95% CI: 0.58; 3.02), sick leave (months) OR = 0.66 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.88), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95; 0.99), ongoing workers’ compensation claim OR = 0.46 (95% CI: 0.19; 1.08, c: male sex OR = 1.03 (95% CI: 0.42; 2.57), sick leave (months) OR = 0.66 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.89), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95; 0.99), ongoing workers’ compensation claim OR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21; 1.21), radiculopathy OR = 2.83 (95% CI = 0.99; 8.1), ≥ 11 tender points OR = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.41; 2.22), d: male sex OR = 1.67 (95% CI: 0.48; 5.9), sick leave (months) OR = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.37; 0.94), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.95; 1.0), ongoing wokers’ compensation claim OR = 0.53 (95% CI (0.16; 1.80), radiculopathy OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 0.48; 10.7), ≥ 11 tender points OR = 0.95 (95% CI: 0.31; 2.9), kyphosis OR = 2.78 (95% CI: 0.53; 14.5), spinal canal stenosis OR = 0.09 (95% CI: 0.01; 0.72), NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value, s-WPS successful work participation score, u-WPS unsuccessful work participation score, AUC area under the curve, : comparison with previous step is supported by similar N on both steps