Skip to main content

Table 3 Predictive values, sensitivity, specificity and AUC for prediction of work participation in each of the multivariable models

From: Prediction of 2-year work participation in sickness absentees with neck or shoulder pain: the contribution of demographic, patient-reported, clinical and imaging information

Information included

N

Classified as ≥50% chance and achieved s-WPS (NPV)

Classified as < 50% chance and achieved u-WPS

(PPV)

s-WPS correctly classified (specificity)

u-WPS correctly classified (sensitivity)

AUC

Model 1:

Demographica

168

0.60

(0.52; 0.67)

NA

1.0

(0.96; 1.0)

0.0

(0.0; 0.05)

0.56

(0.48; 0.63)

Model 1:

Demographic

139

0.59

(0.50; 0.67)

NA

1.0

(0.96; 1.0)

0.0

(0.0; 0.06)

0.56

(0.47; 0.64)

Model 2:

Demographic + patient-reportedb

139

0.72

(0.62; 0.81)

0.67

(0.52; 0.80)

0.82

(0.72; 0.89)

0.54

(0.41; 0.68)

0.77

(0.69; 0.84)

Model 3:

Demographic + patient-reported + clinicalc

139

0.74

(0.63; 0.82)

0.69

(0.54; 0.81)

0.82

(0.71; 0.89)

0.58

(0.44; 0.71)

0.78

(0.70; 0.89)

Model 3:

Demographic + patient-reported + clinicalc

82

0.71

(0.59; 0.83)

0.72

(0.50; 0.89)

0.87

(0.75; 0.95)

0.48

(0.31; 0.66)

0.72

(0.65; 0.86)

Model 4:

Demographic + patient-reported + clinical + MRId

82

0.74

(0.60; 0.84)

0.72

(0.50; 0.88)

0.86

(0.73; 0.94)

0.55

(0.36; 0.72)

0.80

(0.70; 0.90)

  1. a: male sex OR = 1.69 (95% CI: 0.85; 3.34), b: male sex OR = 1.32 (95% CI: 0.58; 3.02), sick leave (months) OR = 0.66 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.88), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95; 0.99), ongoing workers’ compensation claim OR = 0.46 (95% CI: 0.19; 1.08, c: male sex OR = 1.03 (95% CI: 0.42; 2.57), sick leave (months) OR = 0.66 (95% CI: 0.49; 0.89), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95; 0.99), ongoing workers’ compensation claim OR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21; 1.21), radiculopathy OR = 2.83 (95% CI = 0.99; 8.1), ≥ 11 tender points OR = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.41; 2.22), d: male sex OR = 1.67 (95% CI: 0.48; 5.9), sick leave (months) OR = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.37; 0.94), ÖMPSQ score OR = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.95; 1.0), ongoing wokers’ compensation claim OR = 0.53 (95% CI (0.16; 1.80), radiculopathy OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 0.48; 10.7), ≥ 11 tender points OR = 0.95 (95% CI: 0.31; 2.9), kyphosis OR = 2.78 (95% CI: 0.53; 14.5), spinal canal stenosis OR = 0.09 (95% CI: 0.01; 0.72), NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value, s-WPS successful work participation score, u-WPS unsuccessful work participation score, AUC area under the curve, : comparison with previous step is supported by similar N on both steps