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Table 2 Total knee replacement projections and costs in 2030 with changes in obesity rates

From: The projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030

  Projected burden Change in burden based on changes in obesity rates
Projection scenario Procedures (n) Cost Procedures (n) Cost
Scenario 1 (constant TKR rate)
 Base projection 65,569 $1.38 billion   
 Sensitivity analysis - increasing overweight/obesity 75,602 $1.59 billion + 10,033 +$212 million
 Sensitivity analysis - decreasing overweight/obesity
  1% 64,913 $1.37 billion −656 -$14 million
  2% 64,257 $1.35 billion − 1312 -$28 million
  3% 63,602 $1.34 billion − 1967 -$41 million
  4% 62,946 $1.33 billion − 2623 -$55 million
  5% 62,290 $1.31 billion − 3279 -$69 million
Scenario 2 (increasing TKR rate)
 Base projection 161,231 $3.40 billion   
 Sensitivity analysis - increasing overweight/obesity 185,938 $3.92 billion + 24,707 +$521 million
 Sensitivity analysis - decreasing overweight/obesity
  1% 159,619 $3.37 billion −1612 -$34 million
  2% 158,006 $3.33 billion − 3225 -$68 million
  3% 156,394 $3.30 billion − 4837 -$102 million
  4% 154,782 $3.26 billion − 6449 -$136 million
  5% 153,169 $3.23 billion −8062 -$170 million
  1. All costs are reported in 2016 Australian dollars