Table 2 Total knee replacement projections and costs in 2030 with changes in obesity rates
| Â | Projected burden | Change in burden based on changes in obesity rates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Projection scenario | Procedures (n) | Cost | Procedures (n) | Cost |
Scenario 1 (constant TKR rate) | ||||
 Base projection | 65,569 | $1.38 billion |  |  |
 Sensitivity analysis - increasing overweight/obesity | 75,602 | $1.59 billion | + 10,033 | +$212 million |
 Sensitivity analysis - decreasing overweight/obesity | ||||
  1% | 64,913 | $1.37 billion | −656 | -$14 million |
  2% | 64,257 | $1.35 billion | − 1312 | -$28 million |
  3% | 63,602 | $1.34 billion | − 1967 | -$41 million |
  4% | 62,946 | $1.33 billion | − 2623 | -$55 million |
  5% | 62,290 | $1.31 billion | − 3279 | -$69 million |
Scenario 2 (increasing TKR rate) | ||||
 Base projection | 161,231 | $3.40 billion |  |  |
 Sensitivity analysis - increasing overweight/obesity | 185,938 | $3.92 billion | + 24,707 | +$521 million |
 Sensitivity analysis - decreasing overweight/obesity | ||||
  1% | 159,619 | $3.37 billion | −1612 | -$34 million |
  2% | 158,006 | $3.33 billion | − 3225 | -$68 million |
  3% | 156,394 | $3.30 billion | − 4837 | -$102 million |
  4% | 154,782 | $3.26 billion | − 6449 | -$136 million |
  5% | 153,169 | $3.23 billion | −8062 | -$170 million |