Skip to main content

Table 4 Frequencies of low, intermediate and high probability of recovery and observed long-term recovery when classifying shoulder pain patients at baseline based on the full prediction model

From: Brief pain re-assessment provided more accurate prognosis than baseline information for low-back or shoulder pain

Hypothetical scenario Classification Frequency n(%) Perceived recovery at six months
Not recovered N = 209 n(%) Recovered N = 232 n(%)
Stage 1 Full prediction model at baseline (n = 441) 1 – Low probability of recovery 87 (19.7) 64 (73.6) 23 (26.4)
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery 229 (51.9) 116 (50.7) 113 (49.3)
3 – High probability of recovery 125 (28.3) 29 (23.2) 96 (76.8)
Stage 1&2 Full model plus re-assessment of pain at six weeks – Intermediate group only (n = 229) 1 – Low probability of recovery 52 (22.7) 40 (76.9) 12 (23.1)
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery 121 (52.8) 67 (55.4) 54 (44.6)
3 – High probability of recovery 56 (24.5) 9 (16.1) 47 (83.9)
Model Stage 1&2 Full model plus re-assessment of pain at six weeks (n = 441) 1 – Low probability of recovery 87 + 52 = 139 (31.5) 64 + 40 = 104 (74.8) 23 + 12 = 35 (25.2)
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery 121(27.4) 67 (55.4) 54 (44.6)
3 – High probability of recovery 125 + 56 = 181 (41.0) 29 + 9 = 38 (21.0) 96 + 47 = 143 (79.0)