Table 4 Frequencies of low, intermediate and high probability of recovery and observed long-term recovery when classifying shoulder pain patients at baseline based on the full prediction model
Hypothetical scenario | Classification | Frequency n(%) | Perceived recovery at six months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Not recovered N = 209 n(%) | Recovered N = 232 n(%) | |||
Stage 1 Full prediction model at baseline (n = 441) | 1 – Low probability of recovery | 87 (19.7) | 64 (73.6) | 23 (26.4) |
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery | 229 (51.9) | 116 (50.7) | 113 (49.3) | |
3 – High probability of recovery | 125 (28.3) | 29 (23.2) | 96 (76.8) | |
Stage 1&2 Full model plus re-assessment of pain at six weeks – Intermediate group only (n = 229) | 1 – Low probability of recovery | 52 (22.7) | 40 (76.9) | 12 (23.1) |
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery | 121 (52.8) | 67 (55.4) | 54 (44.6) | |
3 – High probability of recovery | 56 (24.5) | 9 (16.1) | 47 (83.9) | |
Model Stage 1&2 Full model plus re-assessment of pain at six weeks (n = 441) | 1 – Low probability of recovery | 87 + 52 = 139 (31.5) | 64 + 40 = 104 (74.8) | 23 + 12 = 35 (25.2) |
2 – Intermediate probability of recovery | 121(27.4) | 67 (55.4) | 54 (44.6) | |
3 – High probability of recovery | 125 + 56 = 181 (41.0) | 29 + 9 = 38 (21.0) | 96 + 47 = 143 (79.0) | |