Table 3 Strength of association (odds ratios, 95% CI), goodness-of-fit statistics, and discrimination for prediction models using a baseline multivariable prognostic model versus baseline pain only, short-term change or repeat score at repeat assessment – long-term perceived recovery as outcome

Kuijpers

Full model (n = 441)

Baseline pain (0–10)

Duration of complaint:

 - less than 5 weeks

 - 6–11 weeks

 - more than 3 m

Concomitant LBP (yes/no)

Shoulder pain score at physical examination (0–14)

Gradual onset (yes/no)

ᅟ

0.89 (0.82 to 0.98)*

ᅟ

1

0.68 (0.40 to 1.18)

0.36 (0.22 to 0.60)*

0.52 (0.32 to 0.84)*

0.96 (0.91 to 1.01)

ᅟ

0.60 (0.39 to 0.95)*

ᅟ

X ² ₍₈₎ = 10.45, p = 0.24

ᅟ

0.71 (0.67 to 0.76)

Full model plus 6w Pain Score (n = 441)

0.72 (0.65 to 0.80)*

X ² ₍₈₎ = 10.89, p = 0.21

0.78 (0.74 to 0.83)

Full model vs. full model plus 6w pain score, p <0.001*

Van der Windt

Full model (n = 282)

Baseline Pain (0–10)

Co-existing neck pain (yes/no)

Preceding trauma (yes/no)

Diagnosis Acute Bursitis (yes/no)

ᅟ

0.80 (0.69 to 0.91)*

0.47 (0.27 to 0.82)*

7.44 (1.69 to 32.85)* 2.32

(1.03 to 5.20)*

ᅟ

X ² ₍₈₎ = 9.05, p = 0.34

ᅟ

0.72 (0.66 to 0.78)

Full model plus 4w Pain Score (n = 270)

0.85 (0.76 to 0.95)*

X ² ₍₈₎ = 15.07, p = 0.06

0.75 (0.69 to 0.82)

Full model vs. full model plus 4w pain score, p = 0.10