Table 2 Strength of association (odds ratios, 95% CI), goodness-of-fit statistics and discrimination (c-statistic) for prediction models using baseline pain only, short-term change, or repeat score at repeat assessment (long-term disability improvement as outcome)

Dunn & Croft [22]

LBP, RMDQ outcome

Baseline Pain Score (0–10)

(n = 430)

0.94 (0.88 to 1.01)

X ² ₍₇₎ = 8.18, p = 0.32

0.55 (0.49 to 0.60)

Baseline vs. 4w pain, p < 0.001*

Baseline vs. Change, p = 0.24

Change vs. 4w pain, p = 0.06

4w** Change in Pain

(n = 332)

1.21 (1.10 to 1.33)*

X ² ₍₆₎ = 4.85, p = 0.56

0.62 (0.56 to 0.68)

4w Pain Score

(n = 334)

0.78 (0.72 to 0.85)*

X ² ₍₇₎ = 13.48, p = 0.06

0.68 (0.63 to 0.74)

Kuijpers et al. [20]

Shoulder pain, SDQ outcome

Baseline Pain Score (0–10)

(n = 586)

0.92 (0.85 to 0.98)*

X ² ₍₆₎ = 6.10, p = 0.41

0.56 (0.51 to 0.61)

Baseline vs. 6w pain, p <0.001*

Baseline vs. Change, p = 0.30

Change vs. 6w pain, p = 0.02*

6w Change in Pain

(n = 477)

1.17 (1.09 to 1.26)*

X ² ₍₇₎ = 5.09, p = 0.65

0.61 (0.56 to 0.67)

6w Pain Score

(n = 478)

0.78 (0.72 to 0.85)*

X ² ₍₆₎ = 3.68, p = 0.72

0.67 (0.62 to 0.72)

Swinkels-Meewisse et al. [23]

LBP, RMDQ outcome

Baseline Pain Score (0–10)

(n = 300)

0.99 (0.98 to 1.01)

X ² ₍₈₎ = 6.99, p = 0.54

0.56 (0.47 to 0.64)

Baseline vs. 6w pain, p <0.001*

Baseline vs. Change, p = 0.03*

Change vs. 6w pain, p = 0.09

6w Change in Pain

(n = 279)

1.03 (1.02 to 1.04)*

X ² ₍₈₎ = 11.20, p = 0.19

0.71 (0.63 to 0.79)

6w Pain Score

(n = 281)

0.97 (0.95 to 0.98)*

X ² ₍₈₎ = 6.25, p = 0.62

0.77 (0.70 to 0.84)

van der Windt et al. [19]

Shoulder pain, SDQ outcome

Baseline Pain Score (0–10)

(n = 293)

0.83 (0.74 to 0.94)*

X ² ₍₅₎ = 5.24, p = 0.39

0.62 (0.55 to 0.69)

Baseline vs. 4w pain, p = 0.44

Baseline vs. Change, p = 0.22

Change vs. 4w pain, p <0.001*

4w Change in Pain

(n = 280)

1.07 (0.97 to 1.16)

X ² ₍₇₎ = 7.04, p = 0.43

0.55 (0.48 to 0.63)

4w Pain Score

(n = 287)

0.83 (0.75 to 0.91)*

X ² ₍₆₎ = 3.50, p = 0.74

0.65 (0.58 to 0.72)