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Table 5 Estimated change to back-related NHS costs and QALYs associated with introducing stratified care in Gloucestershire

From: Implementing the Keele stratified care model for patients with low back pain: an observational impact study

stratified care model risk category % patients in risk categorya mean incremental costs and QALYs per patient over 6 months associated with the stratified care model:b annual referrals for LBP physio. in Glos.c annual incremental impact for Gloucestershire:
Costs (£) QALYs NHS cost
(£ 1000)
QALY gain NMBd
(£ 1000)
NHS private total      
Low 29 −6.58 9.85 3.27 0.003 1531 −10.1 4.6 147.9
Medium 38 14.96 −23.52 −8.56 −0.007 1973 29.5 −13.8 −443.8
High 33 −13.33 −122.61 −135.93 0.023 1713 −22.8 39.4 1204.8
Total 100 −0.65 −46.26 −46.91 0.006 5217 −3.4 30.2 909.0
  1. physio physiotherapy, Glos Gloucestershire, NMB net monetary benefit
  2. aSource: GHT audits (Table 1)
  3. bSource: IMPaCT Back study [13, Table 3]. Costs up-rated to 2014/15 values using the HCHS index [31]: private costs extrapolated from NHS and total (healthcare) costs
  4. cSource: 20% [10, 30] of 26,085, the estimated annual consulting prevalence for LBP in primary care [3] applied to Gloucestershire gender and age-specific population rates for 2013 [31]
  5. dassuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30,000 per QALY